Back

Global Ecology and Biogeography

Wiley

Preprints posted in the last 30 days, ranked by how well they match Global Ecology and Biogeography's content profile, based on 47 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.04% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

1
Climate isolation and percolation as drivers of terrestrial vertebrate richness

Pie, M. R.

2026-07-10 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.07.736971 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
18.4%
Show abstract

Climate is a strong predictor of global species richness, but the effects of climatic conditions are difficult to separate from the geography of the climates themselves. Recent work in climate space has shown that the area and isolation of discrete climatic conditions explain broad-scale richness gradients, yet the internal spatial cohesion of those climates remains poorly characterized. Here, we introduce climate percolation as a complementary descriptor of climate geography, measuring the degree to which the total area of a climate bin is concentrated within effectively connected fragments. Using global range maps for amphibians, birds, mammals and reptiles, we quantified species richness across a two-dimensional climate space defined from 12 climatic variables and evaluated the independent and joint effects of climate area, climate isolation and climate percolation across multiple climate-space resolutions. Climate isolation and percolation were strongly coupled: their first joint axis explained, on average, more than 95% of their shared variation, revealing a dominant gradient of climate fragmentation along which geographically isolated climates are also internally subdivided. Despite this collinearity, percolation consistently outperformed isolation in cross-validation across all four vertebrate groups, with particularly strong predictive gains for birds and mammals. The largest improvements, however, came from the shared isolation-percolation axis, indicating that vertebrate richness in climate space is more strongly associated with the integrated geographical structure of climates than with either inter-fragment distance or internal cohesion alone. These results suggest that climate fragmentation is a multidimensional property of environmental space, combining both the distance among climate fragments and the dominance structure of connected areas. By extending climate-space approaches from area and isolation to percolation, our framework provides a more complete description of how the geography of climate may shape global richness gradients and offers a structural basis for anticipating how future changes in climate connectivity could alter biodiversity patterns.

2
Extinction risk in terrestrial vertebrates is associated with niche limits that reflect climatic vulnerability

Nagy-Watson, M. J.; Kerr, J.

2026-06-26 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.22.733696 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
18.3%
Show abstract

Anthropogenic climate and land-use change are driving an emerging extinction crisis that is expected to intensify in the future. Species climatic niche limits shape their sensitivity to these pressures, potentially leading to disproportionate extinction risk among more climatically vulnerable species. We test whether realized climatic niche limits are associated with current and projected extinction risk across >23,000 terrestrial vertebrate species. We assessed the phylogenetic structure of thermal and aridity niche limits and related them to IUCN threat status and simulated future extinctions. We show that realized niche limits are phylogenetically conserved, indicating evolutionary clustering of climatic tolerances. Species with colder upper thermal limits were more likely to be classified as threatened across taxa. Aridity niche limits show weaker and less consistent relationships with current threat status. Simulated extinction scenarios reveal taxon-specific patterns of climatic niche loss compared to random species extinctions. We also show significant reductions in phylogenetic diversity relative to randomized expectations based on simulated species extinctions. We find that extinction risk is systematically associated with species climatic niche limits, reflecting evolutionary constraints on environmental tolerance. These results indicate that future extinctions will disproportionately affect climatically vulnerable lineages, with cascading consequences for phylogenetic diversity and ecosystem functioning.

3
Diverging Hydroclimatic Trends in Global Tropical Dryland Ecosystems Based on ERA-5 and CHIRPS Analysis Data

Sanchez-Azofeifa, A.; Stan, K. D.; Hamann, H. F.

2026-06-25 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.23.734075 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
9.7%
Show abstract

Tropical dryland ecosystems are highly biodiverse and fragmented and are experiencing significant anthropogenic and climatic changes. With increasing extremes in temperature and precipitation, coupled with significant alteration, these ecosystems are at greater risk of increased exposure and vulnerability to climatic change; however, little work has quantified the climatic shifts occurring within these ecosystems globally. Here, we aim to fill this gap by using the ERA-5 reanalysis and CHIRPS precipitation data to quantify changes in essential climatic variables in tropical drylands since 2000. Overall, we find that regional pressures differ, with tropical dry forests, savannas, and shrublands becoming hotter and drier in the Neotropics and parts of the Afrotropics and Australasia. By contrast, the tropical dry forests in the Indomalayan, Oceania, and Nearctic are experiencing hotter and wetter conditions. Globally, though, these ecosystems are experiencing more change than the global average, suggesting they may be approaching tipping points in their resilience, ultimately shrinking the area where they can survive.

4
From field naturalism to Bayesian models: fog-frost interaction shapes growth form partitioning along Himalayan gradient

Wangda, P.; Whitman, M.; Ohsawa, M.; Ashton, P. S.

2026-06-30 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.25.733531 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
9.6%
Show abstract

AO_SCPLOWBSTRACTC_SCPLOWMountain gradients facilitate our understanding of species range limits, competition dynamics, stress-resilience trade-offs, and determinants of vegetation zone boundaries. Forest compositional models often use altitude as the main predictor, a proxy for temperature that is defensible where floristic transitions are gradual and climate relationships are linear. However, mountains with distinct assemblages, representing tropical gradients or areas with complex biogeographic history, require a modeling framework that reflects non-linear dynamics or interactions between environmental factors, including outlier events (rather than mean conditions). Our study system encompasses both tropical and temperate forests along a broad ([~]3000 m) altitudinal gradient, positioned within a narrow latitudinal band (< 1{degrees}) and composed of mature, continuous forest in the Bhutan Himalaya. To represent the breadth of climatic conditions experienced over a trees lifetime, we used a Bayesian modeling paradigm and integrated multi-generational field knowledge to develop a priori hypotheses and informed priors, with consideration of monsoon seasonality and possible ecophysiological thresholds. Our approach followed three stages (the Pattern, the Mechanism, the Test). Specifically, we interpolated microclimate data and derived custom metrics based on thermodynamics, propagating uncertainty into subsequent models to test whether climate posteriors outperformed altitude in explaining growth form partitioning. For spatial patterns, we identified six distinct vegetation zones (encompassing 145 species from 57 families), with a mid-gradient peak in richness at the tropical-temperate transition zone, and convergence of deciduousness at either end of the gradient. For individual growth forms, abundance was tied to different ecological mechanisms, explained by adaptations to climatic stressors and competition trade-offs. For instance, evergreen broad-leaved dominance was linked to ephemeral cloud immersion, whereas tropical deciduous species were affiliated with higher vapor pressure deficit at lower altitudes. Most importantly, compositional (between-group) models showed that the interaction between frost events and fog probability (air saturation prior to the dry season) governed growth form partitioning more than any single factor; temperate deciduous species, confined to a narrow altitudinal band, exemplified this finding. Our methodological approach is transferable to other data-sparse mountain systems, and our results highlight the vulnerability of unique habitat types and montane endemics under climate change scenarios that alter the fog-frost dynamics. Second abstract in DzongkhaTo see the second abstract in Dzongkha, the official language of Bhutan, please visit our Zenodo site: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19081441.

5
Fundamental-realized niche contrasts shape multi-scale species coexistence

Pagel, J.; Treurnicht, M.; Esler, K. J.; Schurr, F. M.

2026-07-06 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.03.736382 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
9.4%
Show abstract

Ecological theory states that the geographic ranges and coexistence of species are determined by fundamental and realized niches - the sets of environments where a species intrinsic population growth rate is positive in the absence and presence of competitors, respectively. Yet large-scale tests of niche theory have been hampered by the challenge to obtain sufficient data on demography and competition. Here, we quantify fundamental and realized niches by combining data on variation in fundamental demographic rates, community composition and the abiotic environment across the global geographic ranges of 29 shrub species from the South African Fynbos biome (a global biodiversity hotspot). Estimated pairwise competition coefficients and fundamental-realized niche contrasts reveal multi-scale mechanisms of species coexistence. At small scales, species generally exert stronger competition on themselves than on other species. At biogeographical scales, more competitive species have narrower fundamental niches but are not significantly better dispersed, which provides evidence for a generalist-specialist trade-off rather than a competition-colonization trade-off. Under both present and future climates, interspecific competition more strongly limits the realized niches and geographic ranges of generalist species. The large-scale application of niche theory thus identifies key forces shaping biodiversity and indicates that generalist species may be more strongly impacted by climate change than previously thought.

6
Forest degradation reshapes trophic functioning in vertebrate food webs across Amazonian forests

Antunes, A. C.; Brose, U.; Montanarin, A.; Rosenbaum, B.; Peres, C. A.; Meyer, C.; Pereira, H. M.; Hines, J.; Li, J.; Sobroza, T.; Berti, E.; Barnett, A.; Keuroghlian, A.; Zanzini, A. C. d. S.; Castro, A. B.; Thoisy, B. d.; Brocardo, C. R.; Rosa, C.; Ferraz, D. d. S.; Rocha, D. G. d.; Rosa, D. C. P.; Grabin, D. M.; Nakano-Oliveira, E.; Carvalho, E. A. R. d.; Mendonca, E. N.; Vieira, E. M.; Isasi-Catala, E.; Ramalho, E. E.; Baccaro, F.; Michalski, F.; Santos, F.; Yancha, F. A.; Palmeira, F. B. L.; Batista, G. d. A.; Zapata-Rios, G.; Neto, G. d. S. F.; Alvarenga, G. C.; Prado, H. A. d.; Costa, H

2026-07-14 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.13.737465 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
8.5%
Show abstract

The Amazon is a mosaic of ecosystems, accounting for 13% of all known species globally, and responsible for providing a variety of ecosystem services, including a key role in global climate regulation. However, 18% of the Amazon forest cover has been lost completely and a further 38% degraded, threatening biodiversity and millions of local livelihoods. Currently, little is known about how this impacts the functioning of ecological communities. Here, we combine an energetic approach with biodiversity metrics to quantify ecosystem functioning in mammal and bird food webs across Amazonia, along a gradient of forest degradation linked to road proximity. We show that even under relatively low disturbance, ecosystem functions shift: carnivory increases closer to roads, driven by generalist species that persist under these conditions, whereas herbivory declines mainly due to reduced herbivore biomass and species richness. This suggests that processes associated with forest degradation can alter energy flow even where biodiversity metrics remain relatively unchanged, highlighting energetic approaches as sensitive indicators of ecosystem disruption.

7
Data-driven forecasts of regional arrivals of non-native vertebrates worldwide

Capinha, C.; Mendes, M.; Catarino, J.; Soares, F. C.; Essl, F.; Seebens, H.; Oliveira, S.; Reino, L.; Ribeiro, J.

2026-07-09 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.08.737252 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
7.6%
Show abstract

Aim: To forecast near-future arrivals of non-native terrestrial and freshwater vertebrates at the regional level. Location: Global (geopolitical regions worldwide, including countries and main administrative divisions). Methods: We compiled first regional record data and assembled functional and macroecological variables for 1,931 non-native vertebrate species. For each region, we identified recently arrived non-native species using retrospective windows of thirty and twenty years ending in 2015 (1986-2015; 1996-2015). We then fitted region-specific random-forest models classifying recently arrived species versus those not yet arrived using as predictors: (i) harmonised species traits (e.g., habitat, diet, body size and native-range attributes) and (ii) spread history, capturing time since first record elsewhere. Predictive performance was evaluated using leave-one-out cross-validation, comparing full models with trait-only and spread-only variants. We also assessed relationships between predictive accuracy, predictor importance, and the geographic positioning and trade connectedness of regions. Finally, we predicted region-specific probabilities of arrival for species not yet recorded. Results: Forecasting accuracy was consistently high across regions and taxa, with AUC values above 0.9 in more than half of the focal regions. Full models substantially outperformed models using either predictor set alone, and spread-history-only models typically exceeded trait-only models. Relative importance of spread-history predictors declined with geographic distance to the focal region, whereas predictability was lower in highly trade-connected regions. Predicted near-future high-risk arrivals were dominated by birds and freshwater fishes and showed strong regional structuring. A small set of species ranked highly across many regions (e.g., birds: Phasianus colchicus, Acridotheres tristis, Amandava amandava, Colinus virginianus, Corvus splendens and Lonchura malacca; fishes: Coregonus peled and Oreochromis mossambicus; mammal: Oryctolagus cuniculus), suggesting substantial unrealised spread potential. Main conclusions: Near-future regional arrivals of non-native vertebrates are predictable from spread history and species traits. This enables scalable, updateable regional watchlists to support prevention, early detection and horizon scanning.

8
Biodiversity material remains where capacity and governance are strong, but taxonomic resources concentrate with geopolitical power

Moura, M. R.; Silva, R. H. P.; Pedrozo, M.; Guedes, J. J. M.; Uetz, P.; Moroti, M. d. T.

2026-06-25 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.23.734087 medRxiv
Top 0.2%
5.4%
Show abstract

AimBiodiversity-rich regions often lack the scientific infrastructure needed to document and curate their own biodiversity, creating inequalities in access to taxonomic reference material. We investigated how biological, institutional, and geopolitical factors shape the retention, extraction, and appropriation of reptile holotypes, the name-bearing specimens upon which species descriptions are based. LocationGlobal. TaxonReptiles. MethodsWe compiled a historical dataset of reptile holotype origins and destinations spanning 1758-2024 to reconstruct long-term patterns of retention and international specimen flows. We then quantified species-level holotype retention, holotype flows between country pairs, and country-level patterns of retention, appropriation, and network centrality for the period 1990-2024, and used generalised linear mixed models to assess the biological, institutional, and geopolitical determinants of these contemporary circulation processes. ResultsAlthough nearly 90% of reptile species described originated in the Global South, less than a quarter of their holotypes remain housed there. Historically, exported holotypes consistently outnumbered retained holotypes on a decadal basis until the early twenty-first century. Retention was promoted by local scientific capacity, institutional infrastructure, collector involvement in species descriptions, and environmental governance. In contrast, extraction was concentrated in highly endemic regions with limited scientific infrastructure and was associated with taxonomic revisions, socioeconomic interest, and disparities in political stability and colonial history. Appropriation of foreign holotypes was greatest in countries with high research investment, strong environmental governance, and historical geopolitical influence. Main conclusionsGlobal patterns of holotype circulation reflect a persistent geography of scientific inequality. The distribution of taxonomic reference material emerges from the interaction of retention, extraction, and appropriation processes, linking local biodiversity discovery to uneven global scientific capacity. Reducing these inequalities will require investments in taxonomic expertise, institutional infrastructure, and governance frameworks that promote more equitable stewardship of biodiversity knowledge and its material foundations.

9
Small representative samples can capture global vascular plant diversity patterns

Baldaszti, L.; Moonlight, P.; Brummitt, N.; Pironon, S.; Sarkinen, T.

2026-07-10 plant biology 10.64898/2026.07.08.737287 medRxiv
Top 0.2%
4.8%
Show abstract

Incomplete information on distributions for a high proportion of the world's plant species together with biases in global biodiversity data mean that current estimates of plant diversity patterns are skewed. A key issue is that current predictions rely on a subset of species that is not representative of all plant species. Here we tested the feasibility of a representative sampling approach for mapping global vascular plant diversity at the finest scale where comprehensive data is available. Using the World Checklist of Vascular Plants as a reference, we generate random samples of species with increasing sample sizes from the global species pool. We compare the diversity patterns retrieved from the samples against the patterns of the reference dataset using spatially weighted correlation coefficients and four different diversity metrics. We find that at the botanical country scale, representative global maps of species and phylogenetic diversity can be created with small numbers of species (~1% [0.2% and 0.4%, respectively]) at the botanical country scale. For effective growth form and family diversity sample sizes encompassing ~20% [19.2% and 19.5%, respectively] of all species are needed. Random samples require markedly fewer species to reach high correlations than when restricting the pool of species to single plant families or genera. We show that when representative samples are used robust inferences of plant diversity patterns can be made from only a small proportion of species.

10
Anthropogenic-driven loss of an adaptive radiation reduces thermal response diversity

Moreau, S.; Wegscheider, B.; Josi, D.; Bouffard, D.; Schmid, M.; Alexander, T. J.; Selz, O.; Seehausen, O.; Waldock, C.

2026-07-08 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.07.736981 medRxiv
Top 0.3%
4.1%
Show abstract

Biodiversity is predicted to stabilize ecosystems if species have different environmental responses. How this response diversity is shaped by ecological and evolutionary processes remains poorly understood. We determine the drivers of thermal response diversity of 16 Swiss peri-alpine lake-fish communities. We report the first evidence that evolutionary diversification of lineages through adaptive radiation can increase the response diversity of an ecosystem. In-situ diversification increases response diversity in the cold-deep lake environment, but non-endemic and non-native species contributed only weakly to response diversity. The loss of endemic species during historical anthropogenic eutrophication led to a negative legacy on present thermal response diversity in cold and deep lake strata. Overall, the interplay of evolutionary diversification, ecological assembly and anthropogenic impacts drives variation in response diversity. Conserving and restoring processes that generate diversity may help maintain ecosystem stability beyond the Anthropocene.

11
Behavioral metabolic suppression confounds thermal performance estimates and climate vulnerability assessments in a marine ectotherm

Edgar, C.; Penfold, H.; Martinez, T.; Wells, C. D.

2026-07-14 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.13.738316 medRxiv
Top 0.3%
4.1%
Show abstract

O_LIThermal performance curves (TPCs) predict species vulnerability to climate change, but standard respirometry assumes that measured oxygen consumption reflects physiological state. Sessile invertebrates that retract their tentacles and contract under thermal stress violate this assumption, with unmeasured consequences for thermal limit estimates. C_LIO_LIWe tested this behavioral confound in an undescribed cold-water intertidal anemone (Urticina sp.) in the Northwest Atlantic by integrating a negative binomial encounter-rate regression, a maximum entropy species distribution model (both from effort-corrected iNaturalist data), and closed-chamber respirometry across seven temperatures (1-30{degrees}C, 18 individuals, 126 trials). C_LIO_LIThe strongest distributional predictors were cloud cover and coastal urbanization, with a weaker association with winter minimum SST; direct evidence for warm-edge thermal limitation came from the experiment. Anemone expansion state (scored 0-1 from fully closed to fully expanded) was variable and without a clear trend across the coldest treatments but declined above 20{degrees}C before collapsing at the 30{degrees}C treatment, which proved lethal to all individuals. C_LIO_LIStandard TPC models extrapolated the thermal maximum far beyond the lethal bracket ([~]74{degrees}C symmetric Gaussian; 45.9{degrees}C asymmetric). A Bayesian multiplicative model that separated physiology from behavior showed that physiology continued to track temperature while expansion state declined above 20{degrees}C; a fully expanded anemone respired about twice as fast as a fully closed one at the same temperature. The decline in measured respiration is therefore both behavioral and physiological, and disentangling the two requires recording expansion state alongside oxygen consumption. C_LIO_LIBecause a closed anemone cannot feed or exchange gases, the ecologically relevant thermal limit is the temperature at which the animal can no longer maintain its normal expanded posture, not a curve-fitted thermal maximum. That behavioral threshold leaves warm-edge populations within a few degrees of functional thermal failure. C_LIO_LIFuture thermal physiology studies of organisms capable of modulating oxygen consumption through behavior should incorporate quantitative behavioral covariates to separate physiological from behavioral components of the metabolic response. C_LI

12
When suitable habitat is not enough: climate change, habitat loss, and dispersal limitation increase the vulnerability of bald-headed uakaris (Cacajao sp.) in the Amazon Rainforest

Ennes Silva, F.; Mourthe, I.; Plaza Pinto, M.; Rabelo, R. M.; dos Santos Junior, M. A.; Borges, L. H. M.; Diogenes, L. C. R.; Marsh, L. K.; Alvares Oliveira, M.; Ribas, C. C.; Boubli, J. P.

2026-07-03 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.02.736086 medRxiv
Top 0.3%
4.0%
Show abstract

Aims: Species' distributions are determined by the interplay between ecological niche and dispersal ability, constrained by biogeographical barriers. Bald-headed uakaris (Cacajao spp.) are highly specialized primates often associated with seasonally flooded forests. In this study, we used ecological niche models to assess changes in habitat suitability and geographic distribution of uakari species under future scenarios. Location: Western Amazonia. Methods: We integrated ecological niche models, current deforestation data, and dispersal ability to estimate habitat suitability under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios: intermediate (SSP2-4.5) and very high (SSP5-8.5) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Results: Our models project shifts in suitable conditions for all species. Three of the five species are projected to experience substantial reductions ([&ge;]62%) in suitable habitat conditions within their current ranges by 2050 under both future scenarios. Across the western Amazonia, up to 219,189 km2 and 211,276 km2 of land are projected to be unsuitable within the uakari ranges under the intermediate and very high emissions scenarios, respectively. This is particularly relevant for C. calvus, C. rubicundus, and C. ucayalii. At the species level, the uakaris may lose between 343 km2 and 84,531 km2 of their ranges in the intermediate scenario and 858 km2 and 76,216 km2 in the very high scenario. Shifts in suitability due to climate change are expected to vary from 6 to 191 km in the intermediate scenario and from 5 to 168 km in the very high scenario. Furthermore, the uakaris may lose between 0.5% and 8% of their current ranges due to deforestation in all scenarios. Main conclusions: Our findings reveal a high sensitivity of the uakaris to climate change impacts. It is projected that all species may experience contractions in the suitable areas and spatial suitability within their ranges by 2050, underscoring climate change as a relevant threat to these taxa.

13
Impact of Amazonian protected areas in preventing deforestation and carbon loss over four decades

Lopes Dias, L.; Ribas, L. G. d. S.; Ribeiro, B. R.; Geldmann, J.; Prado, F.; Soares, N.; De Marco, P.

2026-06-23 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.23.733928 medRxiv
Top 0.3%
3.2%
Show abstract

Native vegetation protection is a key strategy for delivering both biodiversity and climate benefits, and protected areas have been widely adopted to keep tropical biomes standing. Yet deforestation is driven by interrelated environmental and social factors, and the effectiveness of protected areas varies considerably across space. Here, we evaluated the impact of 802 protected and conserved areas in the Brazilian Amazon on preventing vegetation loss and avoiding carbon emissions over the past 40 years using statistical matching to address the location bias of protection. We found that protected areas were effective throughout the study period, reducing the probability of deforestation per km2 by an average of 0.5 percentage points per year. While the Amazon biome lost 14% of its native vegetation between 1986 and 2024, protected areas prevented the deforestation of 290,436 km2, nine times their actual internal loss. They also stored 45,336 Mt of carbon in 2016 (61% of the Amazon stock) and prevented the emission of 7,300 Mt of CO2 by 2024. Deforestation inside the areas and remoteness reduced their impact, while areas that were initially more preserved were more effective. Area size and age had no influence over impact once we analyzed the amount of avoided deforestation per size and age. Impact also varied across Brazilian states, highlighting the role of regional context. All three protection categories (conservation units, indigenous lands, and quilombola territories) showed a positive mean impact, indicating that each, in aggregate, contributes to reducing deforestation. These findings provide robust evidence of the substantial role of Amazonian protected areas in habitat conservation and climate mitigation, while underscoring that this contribution remains undervalued. We advocate for strategically expanding protection to areas of greatest potential impact, and for securing adequate funding to ensure protected areas can fulfill that potential.

14
Trait-dependent species responses weaken the effects of response diversity on community stability

Heinrichs, A. L.; Polazzo, F.; Kunze, C.; Ghedini, G.

2026-06-27 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.26.734835 medRxiv
Top 0.3%
3.2%
Show abstract

The diversity of species responses to environmental change (response diversity) is a key mechanism of ecological stability. However, anticipating where strong or weak stabilizing responses emerge is challenging because species responses can depend on the local community and the specific stability metric. Whether species traits can consistently inform on how species respond to disturbances, enabling less context-dependent predictions, remains an open question. To address this gap, we use microcosm experiments on marine phytoplankton to test how response diversity supports multiple aspects of community stability under pulse temperature changes, testing both an increase (heatwave) and a decrease in temperature (coldspell). We then map species traits to their responses in a community to identify which traits modulate and predict species' sensitivities. Fundamental response diversity, based on the diversity of species responses to temperature measured in isolation, was a weak predictor of community stability, and relationships differed between disturbances (i.e., heatwave and coldspell). Instead, species traits were consistent predictors of species responses in communities. Small, fast-growing species were more tolerant and benefited from the disturbance, while large, slow-growing species were less tolerant and decreased in proportion - these patterns were consistent across disturbances and community compositions. These results suggest that strong trait-performance relationships might reduce the importance of response diversity for stability. But these findings also show that general species traits, such as size and growth rate, can predict which species, and how, contribute to community responses, providing an empirical basis to relate species traits to stability outcomes under climate change.

15
Near-future warming amplifies natural heatwave impacts and reorganizes freshwater communities

Nouere, S.; Schaefer, M.; Li, G.; Lohr, M.; Ebert, D.; Xu, S.

2026-07-01 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.01.735828 medRxiv
Top 0.3%
3.1%
Show abstract

Future climate change may reshape ecological communities not only by increasing mean temperature, but also by altering the consequences of increasingly frequent heatwaves. Predicting these effects requires understanding how background warming interacts with short heatwaves in natural communities, where responses can arise through direct thermal stress and species interactions. We tested this using 32 outdoor freshwater mesocosms exposed to sustained near-future warming while capturing a documented natural heatwave. Warming raised temperature maxima that exceeded the thermal threshold of the pond snail, a main grazer in the community. Warmed communities showed lower grazer abundance, increased macrophyte and insect herbivore abundance, reduced phytoplankton biomass, and lower zooplankton density. Complementary assays showed that heatwave-level temperatures promoted macrophyte growth and reduced grazer survival, whereas reduced zooplankton performance mainly reflected indirect warming effects via food-web cascades. Thus, near-future warming can amplify natural heatwave impacts by exceeding consumer thermal thresholds and propagating through species interactions.

16
Bathymetric Resolution-Dependent Biases in Antarctic Benthic Biodiversity Models: Hotspots Hold, Counts Shift

Potter, S.; Jansen, J.; Hill, N.; Lucieer, V.

2026-06-24 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.23.734136 medRxiv
Top 0.3%
3.1%
Show abstract

Antarctic benthic organisms are highly diverse and play a critical role in the Southern Ocean ecosystem. Despite decades of sampling, vast areas of the Antarctic continental shelf remain biologically unsurveyed due to logistical and financial constraints, limiting baseline knowledge essential for effective conservation planning. Species distribution models (SDMs) allow biodiversity to be inferred in the absence of biological data by linking benthic community patterns to environmental predictors. However, the resolution of the environmental predictors, particularly bathymetry, varies significantly between regions, casting doubt about how reliably SDMs can be used to predict into regions where only coarse-resolution data are available. Here, we show that SDMs trained on high-resolution data underestimate Antarctic benthic morphospecies richness by up to 18% when applied to aggregated coarse-resolution environmental data (and up to 50% when using satellite-derived ETOPO bathymetry). Using six systematically degraded versions of high-resolution multibeam bathymetry and annotated seafloor imagery across three Antarctic regions, we evaluate SDM performance both with and without additional environmental variables. High-resolution bathymetry captures terrain complexity most effectively, but we find that the spatial distribution of richness hotspots and the median richness per cell remain consistent, provided models are applied at the same resolution at which they were trained. Our results suggest that while high-resolution bathymetry may enhance local predictions, coarse-resolution data may be more robust for regional-scale predictions, such as those used for Antarctic shelf-wide spatial planning.

17
Lichen Growth Form Effects on Rock Weathering in Cold Biomes

Ciric, E. N.; De Jonge, I.; Liu, R.; Cornelissen, J.; Convey, P.; Bokhorst, S.

2026-06-23 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.22.733894 medRxiv
Top 0.4%
2.7%
Show abstract

Rock surface weathering is a critical element in the process of early soil formation, in which lichens are thought to play a significant role. Crustose lichens, with a large area of rock-surface contact, are generally considered more influential in rock weathering, while foliose and fruticose growth forms, with more developed three-dimensional structure and less rock-surface contact, are rarely considered in this context. Here, we test the extent to which all three growth forms contribute to granitic rock surface weathering in Maritime Antarctic ecosystems, by quantifying rock hardness beneath foliose (n = 2 species), fruticose (n = 2) and crustose lichens (n= 5). Our data confirm that foliose lichens reduced rock surface hardness by 9%, to a lesser extent than crustose and foliose lichens (40% and 31% reduction, respectively). To disentangle whether these effects result from lichen-induced weathering or lichen preference for pre-weathered rock, we also analyzed a dated deglaciation sequence on granitic rocks from the Morteratsch Glacier forefield in the Swiss Alps. At this location, the impact of crustose lichens on rock substrate hardness generally increased with time since exposure from glacial retreat and with lichen thallus size. We conclude that lichen presence on rock surfaces significantly reduces rock hardness, with crustose lichens having a greater impact than foliose and fruticose forms, highlighting the potential role of lichens of all three growth forms in driving substrate breakdown and shaping early-stage ecosystem processes in polar and alpine regions.

18
How Robust are Multispecies Coalescent Species Delimitations in Taxonomically Complex Systems? A Genomic Assessment Using Mediterranean Tethya Sponges

van der Sprong, J.; Cardone, F.; Hoehna, S.; Schaetzle, S.; Deister, F.; Erpenbeck, D.; Woerheide, G.; Vargas, S.

2026-07-05 evolutionary biology 10.64898/2026.07.04.735074 medRxiv
Top 0.4%
2.7%
Show abstract

Reliable species delimitation underpins biodiversity assessment but remains difficult for organisms with plastic morphology and few diagnostic characters. Multispecies coalescent (MSC) methods can delimit species from genomic data, yet they are rarely tested in taxonomically complex, marine invertebrate groups where they are arguably most needed. We used the three Mediterranean species of the genus Tethya, a rare, well-characterised system within the otherwise taxonomically difficult phylum Porifera-distinguished by multiple independent morphological and ecological characters-to evaluate how robust MSC-based delimitation is in such groups. Analysing 64 single-copy nuclear loci in BEAST2 and BPP, we compared constrained, hypothesis-testing approaches (BFD*, BFdriver, A10) with freer, heuristic ones (SPEEDEMON, A11), and examined their sensitivity to data type, clock model, priors, and the species-collapse threshold. All methods recovered the three recognised Mediterranean species, but the resolution of within-lineage structure was method-dependent. The hypothesis-testing approaches consistently supported six lineages, robustly across data types and model assumptions, whereas the heuristic approaches proved less stable. Configurations without a priori species hypotheses often failed to converge or were computationally intractable, a problem compounded by the relaxed clock. In SPEEDEMON the outcome changed with the collapse threshold. Because our system lacks an independent reference point to calibrate this threshold, any delimitation based on it is poorly constrained. We conclude that constrained, hypothesis-testing delimitation is the most robust and reproducible MSC approach, yielding a quantitative, model-based hypothesis that can be weighed against other lines of evidence to inform taxonomic decisions. By clarifying how these methods behave and how their outcomes should be interpreted, our study offers a practical guide for researchers working on comparably complex systems.

19
Species-specific drivers of genetic diversity are decoupled from plant community diversity

Abdelwahed, L.; Favre-Bac, L.; Rahnamae, N.; Way, F.; Poulain, N.; Ali, T.; Eskelinen, A.; Till-Bottraud, I.; de Meaux, J.

2026-06-26 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.25.734591 medRxiv
Top 0.4%
2.5%
Show abstract

Understanding how habitat connectivity shapes biodiversity remains a major ecological challenge. In particular, the roles of connectivity and ecological heterogeneity on co-variation in plant species diversity and intraspecific genetic diversity is not understood. We combined species distribution modelling, resistance-to-movement mapping, landscape connectivity analysis and population genomics to investigate diversity patterns in three wet meadow herbs, Scorzonera humilis, Oenanthe peucedanifolia and Lychnis flos-cuculi, and their surrounding plant communities. Genetic diversity patterns differed strongly among co-occurring species. Connectivity metrics explained genetic diversity only in O. peucedanifolia, and environmental drivers of genetic diversity were highly species specific. Importantly, genetic diversity changed with the presence of some species in the community, but it was consistently unrelated to indicators of local plant community diversity. Overall, the processes shaping within-species biodiversity may differ fundamentally from those structuring habitat connectivity and plant species communities, with important implications for conservation.

20
Complex interplay of biomechanics and ecology influenced crab claw morphology evolution

Bicknell, R. D. C.; Wolfe, J. M.; Flynn, J. J.; Klompmaker, A. A.; Chase, M.; Fu, P.; Hopkins, M.

2026-06-23 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.23.733945 medRxiv
Top 0.5%
2.3%
Show abstract

True crabs (Brachyura) are among the most iconic marine arthropods, representing noteworthy examples of morphological and ecological disparity. A striking feature of brachyurans are their anterior pincer-like appendages: chelipeds. These structures showcase a large diversity of morphologies that reflect ecology and overall multifunctionality. Yet, a comprehensive assessment of appendage functional morphology within phylogenetic and ecological trait contexts has never been attempted. By combining 3D geometric morphometrics, finite element analyses, multilocus molecular phylogeny, and ecological trait data for 80 crab species, including three fossil forms, we unveil a complex evolutionary history for crab chelipeds. Despite extreme shape diversity amongst chelipeds, stress distributions are very similar across taxa and hint a many-to-one pattern. High concentrations of chelipeds within constrained morphospace regions associated with peak pinch forces illustrates that brachyuran morphologies optimised for shell crushing may have arisen in the Cretaceous. Deviations from this morphospace highlight the diversification of non-shell-crushing life modes and the influence of sexual selection on appendages. Neither cheliped shape nor pinch force show phylogenetic signal. Together these results indicate that the evolution of cheliped shape is closely associated with, and inferred to have been strongly influenced by, crab ecology, biomechanical needs and sexual selection. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENTChelipeds, the pincer-like claws of crabs, are among the most morphologically diverse appendages within Arthropoda, yet the evolutionary forces driving this diversity remain poorly understood. By integrating 3D geometric morphometrics, biomechanical modelling, molecular phylogeny, and ecological data across 80 crab species including fossil forms, we demonstrate that cheliped morphology is driven by ecology, biomechanical demands, and sexual selection rather than phylogenetic relatedness. The multifunctionality of these structures produces strong evidence for many-to-one mapping of form to function. Morphologies optimised for durophagy appear to have originated in the Cretaceous, with subsequent diversification into manipulative and sexually selected forms from a morphologically flexible foundation. These findings demonstrate that cheliped diversity reflects a complex interplay between ecological specialisation, biomechanical optimisation, and sexual selection across Brachyura.